Special DElivery: Wings vs. Preds

Welcome to MiHockeyNow’s new blog, starring Darren Eliot. The famed TV analyst and Sports Illustrated columnist will discuss all things hockey in this exclusive blog for MiHockey.

Former NHL goaltender and current Fox Sports Detroit analyst/Sports Illustrated columnist Darren Eliot breaks down the Red Wings’ first round series with their division rivals, the Nashville Predators.

By Darren Eliot –

The Predators face the Red Wings in the playoffs for the third time. They lost in six in 2004 and 2008, but this is the first time the Preds begin on home ice. The season series was deadlocked at three games apiece between these Central Division rivals, who finished just two points apart in the standings. In fact, these teams were so close that the Red Wings scored just 11 more goals and surrendered a mere eight goals fewer, although the Predators won the last two meetings, including a convincing 4-1 win in Detroit on March 30.

More telling than the similarities are the differences, most notably on special teams. The Predators led the league in power-play efficiency at 21.6%, while the Red Wings struggled as a third tier man-advantage outfit ranking 22nd at 16.1%. The penalty kill also favors the Preds, who finished 10th at 83.6%, making them one of only three teams to finish in the top 10 in both special teams categories (the Canucks and Penguins were the others). The Red Wings PK proficiency finished at 81.8%, but did improve markedly down the stretch, as they didn’t yield a power-play goal against over their last seven games.

Another major difference is that the Red Wings didn’t make any substantial moves at the trade deadline, only bringing back former Red Wing defenseman Kyle Quincey. Meanwhile, the Predators altered their look more than any playoff-bound team. GM David Poile added size on the blue line with Hal Gill and up front with centerman Paul Gaustad moving over from the Buffalo Sabres. Both bolster an already sound penalty-killing group – Gill with his shot blocking and Gaustad as a top face-off man. Poile also brought in skill up front in Andrei Kostitsyn from Montreal and prodigal son Alexander Radulov – back after defecting to the KHL in 2008.

And why not. This is the Predators’ deepest, most talented and well-rounded collection ever. Pekka Rinne led all goaltenders in wins (43) and Shea Weber and Ryan Suter form the best 1-2 punch from the blue line in the game. Mike Fisher epitomizes the Predators solid two-way approach: honest, 200-foot hockey. Overall, they match-up physically better than the better known and more decorated Nick Lidstrom, Pavel Datsyuk, Johan Franzen and Henrik Zetterberg. In goal, all-star Jimmy Howard was the best goalie in the game through the All-Star break, but battled various injuries for 6-8 weeks afterwards. While he was out, Rinne just kept on winning for the Preds.

Detroit is the organization that Nashville has long held as the standard to strive for. On paper, they’ve arrived to that point. Now, they must take the final, mental leap and prove that this is indeed their time.

For the Red Wings, Johan Franzen is their one big-body scorer. He is the finisher on a puck-possession team. Datsyuk will put him in position to score and he has to deliver, which he has in past playoffs. Pertinent as well is the fact that Franzen finally awoke from a prolonged slumber to tally three times in the final three games of the season, including his first multi-goal game since a hat trick on November 8 – almost as if he was prepping for the playoffs. Franzen and the Wings as a whole will try to flip that playoff switch and get to the game that had them leading the league and establishing the all-time home mark for consecutive wins.

An interesting storyline involves Jonathan Ericsson. He returned to the line-up on March and immediately the Wings penalty kill righted itself. During the final week of the season, coach Mike Babcock played Ericsson with Lidstrom to positive effect. That’s big responsibility for the Red Wings’ largest rearguard. This series could hinge on how he handles the increased workload against the Predators top players.

This is truly a seven-game pick ‘em, with everything pointing to the Predators’ arrival, save one crucial question: Can they beat the team they’re longing to become?